UEFA Nations League

England vs Spain

Kick-off 20:45 · 2026-09-26

Big match

Result

HT2-1 FT2-3 UNDER 1.5 2H lost

Games this big draw sharp, heavily traded markets, so a real betting edge is rare here. We usually find better value in quieter fixtures. Still, here is how we see it landing.

Predicted score

1-1 13%

1-2 8%

2-1 8%

Combined, there's a 29% chance one of these three scorelines is the exact final result.

Market probabilities

Model against the book

Our call

+18.8%

Selection	Model	Book	Book odds	Fair odds
UNDER 1.5 2H	66%	56%	1.80	1.52

Match result (1X2)

Model

England35%

Draw27%

Spain37%

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties. Book is the chance the bookmaker's price implies. Fair odds are the price at the model's chance.

Predictions are model estimates, not certainties. 18+. Bet responsibly. Odds and prices move, so always confirm before betting.