Oddsprey

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About

Oddsprey rates every football fixture with a statistical model, puts that number next to the bookmaker's price, and publishes what happened. All of it, wins and losses.

Independent and self-funded

No bookmaker owns any part of this. No affiliate deals, no referral links, no paid placements. Nobody pays us to feature a market, a match or a price.

That matters because the usual tipping business model is affiliate revenue, and affiliate revenue is paid on the bets you place. It rewards volume, not accuracy. Ours does not: a subscription is the only income, so the only thing worth optimising is whether the numbers are right.

It is built and run by one person, on one server.

What we do not claim

We have not proven a betting edge. That is the honest position and it is worth stating plainly, because almost nothing else in this corner of the internet does.

Beating a bookmaker over the long run is hard. The margin is built into every price, and a model has to be better than the market by more than that margin before a profit is anything but luck. We have periods that look good. A period that looks good is not evidence.

So the work goes into calibration and accuracy, not into claiming alpha. When the model says 60%, we want that to happen 60 times in 100. That is measurable, it is published, and it is the thing we are actually trying to get right.

Read the methodology for how a prediction is made and how the record is computed, and the results for the record itself.

Why every result is published

A tipster who shows you the winners is telling you nothing. The only number with information in it is the one that includes the losers, so the results page carries every settled bet at the price it was called at, and the running return.

Nothing is edited after the fact. A past day's board is frozen once the day ends, so changing a rule today cannot rewrite what we said yesterday.

How it makes money

Subscriptions. There is a free tier that shows the board, the model's chances and the results, and a paid tier that adds the write-ups, the correct-score reads and the staked bets. Prices are on the pricing page and there is a 30 day free trial.

We do not take a cut of anything you win or lose. We never see it.

What this is not

If betting has stopped being fun, stop. Gambling Therapy lists free, confidential help by country.

The full terms are in the terms of use and the disclaimer.

Get in touch

Questions, a bug, or a number that looks wrong: support@oddsprey.com. A wrong number is worth reporting and we would rather hear it.

Daily picks and results also go out on Telegram.