UEFA Nations League

Italy vs Belgium

Kick-off 20:45 · 2026-09-25

Big match

Result

HT0-1 FT0-2 Italy to win lost

Games this big draw sharp, heavily traded markets, so a real betting edge is rare here. We usually find better value in quieter fixtures. Still, here is how we see it landing.

Predicted score

1-1 13%

2-1 8%

1-2 8%

Combined, there's a 29% chance one of these three scorelines is the exact final result.

Market probabilities

Model against the book

How we lean

Italy to win 38% model chance

We are not backing a bet on this match. This is the model's read of the result, and the write-up below explains the game rather than arguing for a stake.

Match result (1X2)

Model

Italy38%

Draw27%

Belgium35%

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties. Book is the chance the bookmaker's price implies. Fair odds are the price at the model's chance.

Predictions are model estimates, not certainties. 18+. Bet responsibly. Odds and prices move, so always confirm before betting.