Allsvenskan

Mjallby AIF vs Gais

Kick-off 16:30 · 2026-09-20

Medium confidence

Result

HT0-1 FT0-3 UNDER 1.5 HT won

Market probabilities

Model against the book

Our call

+18.6%

Selection	Model	Book	Book odds	Fair odds
UNDER 1.5 HT	79%	67%	1.50	1.26

Match result (1X2)

Model

Mjallby AIF44%

Draw30%

Gais26%

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties. Book is the chance the bookmaker's price implies. Fair odds are the price at the model's chance.

Analyst write-up

This shapes up as a low-tempo, tight contest. Mjallby carry the home edge and a favourable H2H, but their attack is toothless and Gais defend well despite a long injury list. Both attacks are slow to warm up, and the 1.8-goal H2H points to few first-half chances, which supports the 1st-half Under 1.5. Expect goals scarce early; a single goal either way is likely, with a scoreless half very much in play. Team news could move this.

Most likely final scores: 1-1 14%, 1-0 12%, 0-0 11% (a 37% chance one of these lands). This is the scoreline read behind the call.

Main risk: Mjallby's defence has been very porous (2.04 conceded), so despite Gais' blunted, injury-hit attack this could open up into a higher-scoring or upset result rather than the tight low-total game modelled.

Unknowns: Starting XIs shown are each side's last actual lineup, not the confirmed teams (published ~1h before kickoff); selection or formation changes, especially given Gais' injuries, could shift the read.

Recent form

Team	Last 6	W	D	L	Goals
Mjallby AIF	WLLLDD	1	2	3	7:15
Gais	WLLWDL	2	1	3	6:5

Oldest on the left, most recent on the right. League matches only.

Head to head

Last 5 meetings: Mjallby AIF 1, Gais 1, 3 drawn, averaging 1.8 goals a game.

Scores, most recent first: 0-0, 2-0, 1-1, 1-1, 1-2.

Predictions are model estimates, not certainties. 18+. Bet responsibly. Odds and prices move, so always confirm before betting.