New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls

Our call

Match result (1X2)

Recent form

Team	Last 6	W	D	L	Goals
New York City FC	LDDDLW	1	3	2	6:6
New York Red Bulls	LDLDLW	1	2	3	3:7

Oldest on the left, most recent on the right. League matches only.

Head to head

Last 6 meetings: New York City FC 4, New York Red Bulls 1, 1 drawn, averaging 3.33 goals a game.

Scores, most recent first: 1-1, 3-2, 2-0, 0-2, 5-1, 2-1.

Analyst write-up

A cagey New York derby favouring the Under 3.5. NYCFC hold the edge at home but a heavy injury list blunts their attack, and Red Bulls travel poorly, scoring just 0.58 per away game with a negative goal difference. Expect a low-to-medium event count around 2.5 total goals, NYCFC nudging ahead. The clear risk is the H2H history of 3.3 goals per meeting; a derby that opens up could push past the line.

Most likely final scores: 1-1 13%, 1-0 11%, 2-1 9% (a 34% chance one of these lands). This is the scoreline read behind the call.

Main risk: The H2H series averages 3.3 goals and these derbies can open up; if Red Bulls' front line (Cowell, Hall, Sofo) exploits NYCFC's makeshift attack-first setup, the game could reach or clear 3.5 and beat the Under.

Unknowns: None material; confirmed lineups, injuries, form, standings and weather are all available.