Groningen vs PEC Zwolle

Our call

Match result (1X2)

Recent form

Team	Last 6	W	D	L	Goals
Groningen	WWLLDD	2	2	2	12:13
PEC Zwolle	LLWLDL	1	1	4	6:17

Oldest on the left, most recent on the right. League matches only.

Head to head

Last 6 meetings: Groningen 0, PEC Zwolle 1, 5 drawn, averaging 2.0 goals a game.

Scores, most recent first: 1-1, 2-2, 0-2, 0-0, 1-1, 1-1.

Analyst write-up

Backed bet is Under 3.5, and the read supports it. Expect Groningen to control a scrappy home game against a poor, low-scoring PEC away side, but Groningen's own leaky defence and a wet, windy night point to a modest total near 2.9, not a rout. The six-meeting H2H averages just 2.0 goals. A 1-1 or 2-1 is most likely; draw and away points remain live, so lineups (out ~1h before kickoff) could shift the read.

Most likely final scores: 1-1 12%, 2-1 10%, 1-0 9% (a 30% chance one of these lands). This is the scoreline read behind the call.

Main risk: Groningen's home defence concedes freely and the third-party model actually leans draw/PEC (45/45), so an open, higher-scoring game or a PEC away point is a real path that would beat the Under and the home lean.

Unknowns: Confirmed XIs are not yet published (probable lineups are each side's last actual XI, so selection or formation may change); both squads carry multiple listed injuries, which keeps availability partly uncertain.