KuPS vs Mariehamn

Our call

Match result (1X2)

Recent form

Team	Last 6	W	D	L	Goals
KuPS	WWWWWD	5	1	0	15:5
Mariehamn	LLLDLL	0	1	5	3:16

Oldest on the left, most recent on the right. League matches only.

Head to head

Last 6 meetings: KuPS 2, Mariehamn 2, 2 drawn, averaging 2.67 goals a game.

Scores, most recent first: 1-1, 0-1, 4-1, 3-0, 2-2, 0-1.

Analyst write-up

KuPS should control this at home against a Mariehamn side that rarely scores away (0.56 per game) and concedes freely. The likely shape is a comfortable home win kept to two or three, with the visitors offering little going forward, which is the case for Under 3.5: the goals sit mostly on one side and low away output caps the total near 2.85. Blowout risk is the main threat to the Under. Lineups not yet confirmed.

Most likely final scores: 2-0 15%, 1-0 13%, 3-0 11% (a 39% chance one of these lands). This is the scoreline read behind the call.

Main risk: A heavy favourite can run up the score against a collapsing side; if KuPS score three-plus and Mariehamn nick one, the game clears 3.5 and the Under loses. A rotated KuPS XI or an early red card could also swing the total either way.

Unknowns: Injuries and suspensions are unavailable, so squad availability for both sides is unknown; the listed XIs are last-match probables, not confirmed lineups, which publish about an hour before kickoff.