Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City

Our call

Match result (1X2)

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Team	Last 6	W	D	L	Goals
Sporting Kansas City	LLWLLL	1	0	5	5:14
St. Louis City	WWWWDW	5	1	0	14:5

Oldest on the left, most recent on the right. League matches only.

Head to head

Last 6 meetings: Sporting Kansas City 1, St. Louis City 2, 3 drawn, averaging 3.83 goals a game.

Scores, most recent first: 2-3, 2-2, 2-0, 1-3, 1-1, 3-3.

Analyst write-up

This backs the first-half Under 1.5. Both sides tend to start measured, and the projected opening-45 total sits near 1.05 goals, so a scoreless or one-goal first half is the base case. St. Louis are the stronger, more clinical side but travel and often build slowly; Sporting are leaky yet cautious early. Main risk is an early Sporting concession forcing a chase. Lineups are confirmed. Full-time read leans 1-1 or a narrow St. Louis win.

Most likely final scores: 1-1 12%, 1-2 9%, 0-1 8% (a 30% chance one of these lands). This is the scoreline read behind the call.

Main risk: MLS is high-variance and derby fixtures compress talent gaps; Sporting at home with crowd backing could nick a draw or spring an upset, and the reshuffled St. Louis back three (three defenders injured/rotated) could ship early goals and blow the score past the anchor.

Unknowns: None material. Confirmed lineups, injuries, standings, form and weather are all supplied.