Over 3.5 goals predictions
Four or more goals. A minority of matches, and a market where the prices are long enough that a small change in the model's goal estimate moves the value a long way.
How this market works
That sensitivity cuts both ways. An apparent edge on over 3.5 is the kind most likely to be an artefact of a thin record, which is why the confidence label matters more here than almost anywhere else.
We cap how large an edge we are willing to believe on any market. A number that looks too good is treated as a modelling error rather than an opportunity.
Our record on it
| Settled bets | 123 |
| Won | 69 of 123 (56%) |
| Return | -8.4% |
Every settled bet on this market, wins and losses, at the price it was called at. A win rate on its own says little: what matters is the return, and over a short run even that is mostly noise.
The full record covers every market together. How these numbers are calculated.
Where to see today's calls
Live prices and our chances for every fixture are on the board. The matches we have written up are on the predictions page.
New to any of this, start with the guide: what the odds mean, what an edge is, and how a stake gets sized.