Over 2.5 goals predictions
Three or more goals in the match. Two goals is a loser, and the .5 exists precisely so there is no push.
How this market works
This is the most heavily traded goals line in football, and it is the one where a model's view of a fixture is easiest to state: how many goals is this game worth? Our answer comes from each side's scoring and conceding rates, adjusted for who they have been playing.
It is also the market we check hardest, because a raw model probability and the frequency it actually happens at are not the same number until someone measures them. Every settled over 2.5 bet is scored against what happened and the result is published, win or lose.
Our record on it
| Settled bets | 9 |
| Won | 3 of 9 (33%) |
| Return | -46.3% |
Every settled bet on this market, wins and losses, at the price it was called at. A win rate on its own says little: what matters is the return, and over a short run even that is mostly noise.
The full record covers every market together. How these numbers are calculated.
Where to see today's calls
Live prices and our chances for every fixture are on the board. The matches we have written up are on the predictions page.
New to any of this, start with the guide: what the odds mean, what an edge is, and how a stake gets sized.