Match result predictions
The oldest market there is. Home win, draw, or away win, and nothing else. A draw is a result, not a failure of the other two.
How this market works
It is the market where the bookmaker is sharpest, because it is the one everybody prices. The margin is usually thinnest here and the disagreements are smallest, so a large edge on a match result should be treated with more suspicion than a large edge on a goals line.
Our model gets there through the scoreline. It estimates how many goals each side scores, builds the probability of every scoreline from that, then adds up the ones where the home side wins, the ones that finish level, and the ones where the away side wins. Those three numbers are on every fixture on the board, free.
Our record on it
| Settled bets | 11 |
| Won | 7 of 11 (64%) |
| Return | +36.6% |
Every settled bet on this market, wins and losses, at the price it was called at. A win rate on its own says little: what matters is the return, and over a short run even that is mostly noise.
The full record covers every market together. How these numbers are calculated.
Where to see today's calls
Live prices and our chances for every fixture are on the board. The matches we have written up are on the predictions page.
New to any of this, start with the guide: what the odds mean, what an edge is, and how a stake gets sized.